A mere eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were an indicator or a cause of Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. When the England international swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six matches, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is a rather hard query to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, while the positive results have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look curiously susceptible – yet currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for their star man to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened versus United.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge the club must confront in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
